Stats Explain the Sunday Game

Regular readers of the Irish News will know it has been publishing match facts and stats in real time for each Ulster championship matches so far. This Sunday it’s the turn of Donegal and Tyrone.

At half time and again at full-time, via their social media accounts, you can check out what’s going on. The purpose is to enable you to understand what is happening in the game, when it matters, as it happens. And you don’t have to wait for a pundit to give their subjective view. For the GAA fan it offers a super insight into the day’s action. It’s immediate. It's insightful and it’s interesting.

Judging by the popularity and frequency of stats and analysis even in underage club teams there is no doubt that an objective view of the game based on what is really happening is better than the old ways. You know the scenario, there's something happening, we're not sure what, but sure we'll take off the corner forward anyway!

Having teamed up with Performa and Ulster University, they are recording data in real time: the ratio of attacks to shots, shot conversion, kickouts won and lost. All those usual suspects and snippets that a coach or keen observer will want to know.

Monaghan Men to Watch

Take last Sunday’s clash of Cavan and Monaghan as a primary example. The stand out performer for the paper’s analyst Cahair O’Kane was the Monaghan no. 9 Karl O’Connell who was on the ball a total of 24 times, more than any other Monaghan player.

His stats show that although he lost possession a couple of times he racked up five tackles, contributed to ten attacks, and set up three scores. A more obvious and influential player in terms of his overall contribution to the game was Owen Duffy, who was on the ball twenty times, won six tackles, took part in 8 attacks, scored 0-4 and set up 1-1 including the single Conor McManus goal that settled affairs. Impressive stuff.

Here was a man who didn't start against Fermanagh but when he came off the bench in that game he was in possession 14 times, and scored three points with a further assist. More impressive stuff, the stats tell the tale.

Against Cavan he was possibly the most visible and eye-catching player on the park. He also took a black card late on when Monaghan had edged ahead, and Cavan were pressing seeking equalising scores. The stats don’t show that but it had an impact on the game.

One for the Team

Let us refer back to Monaghan on Sunday and Owen Duffy’s contribution which peaked with a black card that ended his involvement.

Certainly for the pundits in the TV studio a player getting the line for cynicism is frowned upon. For the championship manager single-mindedly seeking success, is the perspective the same?

When Conor McManus beat his man for his goal, were we surprised that the Cavan no 6 Conor Moynagh didn't foul and take one for the team? Conor McManus was asked this very question by a BBC reporter post match. It is a moot point, had Moynagh fouled and prevented the goal, would that have gone down as a negative or positive in his stats record?

Let us move on to McManus himself. The stats tell us he had twelve possessions of the ball, and scored 1-4 of which 1-2 was from play.

What the data doesn’t quantify is that he was responsible for the single biggest moment in the game, for it was Duffy’s defence splitting pass that picked up McManus’s  simple but devastating out and in movement to create the space for the goal. His movement on the ball made it difficult for Conor Moynagh to react or position himself to prevent the goalbound run that would have stopped a score.

Is it possible to quantify in stats the quality X factor that he displayed to make that darting run to create his own space in behind? It was the sort of stuff Canavan used to do regularly. Conor McManus is the same breed and in that one moment shows why stats are invaluable but also why they work best backed up with video evidence.

The Irish News is giving us a superb insight. There’s more to the Ulster Championship than meets the eye.